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6% growth estimated for FY2018 adspend
Further growth of 4.6% for FY2019 amid Brexit uncertainty
London, 28th January 2019: UK adspend rose 5.1% year-on-year to reach £5.6bn in Q3 2018, marking the 21st consecutive quarter of market growth and the industry’s strongest third quarter of the year since 2015. This record investment highlighted in today’s Advertising Association/WARC Expenditure Report underpins the preliminary estimate for 2018 adspend of £23.5bn – meaning the industry will have grown +6.0% year-on-year.
The positive figures come ahead of the Advertising Association’s LEAD summit on Wednesday (January 30th), which will look at the key themes of Trust, Trade & Transformation in the UK’s advertising industry. Predictions of 4.6% growth for UK advertising in 2019 come amid calls from the industry for a positive deal for business from Brexit negotiations with minimal disruption.
Key headlines from the report show:
Overall market growth is being driven by increasing spend on online advertising, which is expected to grow 9.8% this year, following on from an estimated 13.4% rise in 2018.
In the individual formats, the positive story for digital was reflected across the board. Notably high growth was recorded for digital radio ad formats, with a year-on-year rise in Q3 of +25.1%, and in VoD TV at +11.5%. Regional digital newsbrands witnessed growth of +10.9%, with national digital newsbrands measuring +3.7% growth, and digital magazine brands +1.5%.
Stephen Woodford, Chief Executive at the Advertising Association said:
“UK advertising continues to perform strongly, now delivering its twenty-first straight quarter of growth and demonstrating the commitment of British advertisers to investing in the growth and success of their businesses”
“As the clock ticks down to our departure from the EU, it is crucial the Government provides the certainty we are all seeking in business. We are predicting continued adspend growth of 4.6% in 2019 and an agreement with the EU that keeps disruption at a minimum and keeps trade and talent flowing will greatly help this growth. UK advertising is the best in the world and we need a deal that ensures we keep it that way.”
James McDonald, Data Editor at WARC commented:
“Our projection of 4.6% growth in the UK’s ad market this year is firmly based on a business-favourable outcome from the EU withdrawal agreement, and would mark a decade of continuous expansion since the last advertising recession.
“Further, a preliminary estimate of 6% growth in advertising investment last year represents a faster rate of expansion than was recorded in 2017, and is therefore indicative of an industry in rude heath. This is particularly true in relation to digital ad formats, all of which are currently forecast to attract higher levels of investment in 2019.”
| Full-year forecast summary | Adspend 2017 (£m) | 2017 v 2016 | Estimate 2018 | Forecast 2019 |
| % change | % change | % change | ||
| Internet* | 11,553 | 14.3% | 13.4% | 9.8% |
| of which mobile | 5,223 | 37.3% | 27.3% | 20.2% |
| TV | 5,108 | -3.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| of which VoD | 211 | 7.1% | 12.1% | 10.1% |
| Direct mail | 1,700 | -3.1% | -8.0% | -8.2% |
| Out of home | 1,144 | 1.5% | 4.2% | 2.8% |
| National newsbrands | 1,036 | -5.3% | -4.9% | -2.3% |
| of which digital | 275 | 19.3% | 4.2% | 8.1% |
| Regional newsbrands | 887 | -13.1% | -7.5% | -4.4% |
| of which digital | 212 | 9.9% | 11.6% | 9.3% |
| Magazine brands | 776 | -11.5% | -7.5% | -6.2% |
| of which digital | 271 | -4.0% | -1.2% | 1.3% |
| Radio | 679 | 5.2% | 6.3% | 4.8% |
| of which digital ad formats | 35 | 26.3% | 26.7% | 15.9% |
| Cinema | 258 | 2.3% | -2.6% | 5.2% |
| TOTAL UK ADSPEND | 22,138 | 4.3% | 6.0% | 4.6% |
| * Broadcaster VoD, digital revenues for newsbrands and magazine brands, radio station websites and mobile advertising spend are also included within the internet total of £11,553m, so care should be taken to avoid double counting. Source: AA/WARC Expenditure Report, January 2019 |
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| At-a-glance media summary – Q3 2018 | Q3 2018 v Q3 2017 | 9M 2018 v 9M 2017 |
| % change | % change | |
| Internet* | 12.3% | 14.0% |
| of which mobile | 23.6% | 27.9% |
| TV | 0.1% | 2.4% |
| of which VoD | 11.5% | 11.0% |
| Direct mail | -14.0% | -8.0% |
| Out of home | 7.3% | 4.7% |
| National newsbrands | -7.1% | -5.2% |
| of which digital | 3.7% | 3.4% |
| Regional newsbrands | -5.3% | -8.0% |
| of which digital | 10.9% | 12.9% |
| Magazine brands | -2.8% | -6.7% |
| of which digital | 1.5% | 1.3% |
| Radio | 5.0% | 6.4% |
| of which digital ad formats | 25.1% | 27.6% |
| Cinema | -8.3% | -8.0% |
| TOTAL UK ADSPEND | 5.1% | 6.5% |
| * Broadcaster VoD, digital revenues for newsbrands and magazine brands, radio station websites and mobile advertising spend are also included within the internet total, so care should be taken to avoid double counting. Source: AA/WARC Expenditure Report, January 2019 |
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